Direct answer: correlated pairs for AUD/USD
There is no single fixed list of “correlated with AUD/USD” forex pairs. Correlation depends on the time period, market regime, and what definition you use (for example, daily closes vs intraday returns). In practice, the pairs that are most often observed to move together with AUD/USD tend to fall into three groups: (1) other pairs that share AUD, (2) other pairs that share USD, and (3) pairs whose drivers are linked to AUD (commodity and risk sentiment) or to the same underlying global factors.
How correlation works in forex (and what it means)
Correlation measures how two price series tend to move together, usually using returns (not raw prices). If you compute the correlation between AUD/USD returns and another pair’s returns over a sample (for example, several months of daily data), a positive correlation means they often rise and fall together; a negative correlation means they tend to move in opposite directions.
Key terms and inputs:
- Time window: The correlation from the last 3 months can differ from the last 3 years.
- Frequency: Using 1-minute returns versus daily returns can produce different results.
- Definition of AUD/USD: Use consistent data for both series (same source and same return method).
A practical implication: correlation is best treated as a descriptive observation, not a rule that will always hold.
Common pair categories to compare with AUD/USD
1) Pairs that share AUD
Pairs that include AUD can show strong relationships because they are influenced by the same base currency (the Australian dollar). Even when the counter currency differs, many of the same AUD-specific forces (like local rate expectations or Australia-related macro themes) will affect multiple AUD legs.
Pairs you would typically test include:
- AUD/USD (the reference)
- AUD/JPY
- AUD/NZD
- AUD/CAD
2) Pairs that share USD
Pairs that include USD can correlate with AUD/USD through shared U.S. dollar dynamics. If USD tends to strengthen or weaken broadly, AUD/USD can move alongside other USD crosses.
Pairs you would typically test include:
- EUR/USD
- GBP/USD
- USD/JPY
- USD/CAD
- USD/CHF
Note: whether the relationship looks positive or negative depends on whether the pair is quoted with USD as the base or the quote currency.
3) Pairs linked via risk sentiment and macro “global factors”
AUD is often discussed in connection with commodity cycles and broader risk appetite. When global risk sentiment shifts or when commodity-related expectations change, AUD can react alongside other “risk-linked” currencies and rates-sensitive moves.
In a comparison process, this often shows up as moderate correlations with:
- NZD crosses (because New Zealand is also a commodity-linked economy)
- JPY crosses (because yen moves often reflect risk-off/risk-on shifts)
- Other G10 pairs affected by global rate expectations
Because these links are indirect, correlations can be unstable.
Example checks you can run (without assuming a future outcome)
- Compute rolling correlation: Measure correlation for overlapping windows (for example, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months). Look for periods where the sign or strength changes.
- Compare multiple frequencies: Run the same test with daily returns and weekly returns.
- Separate regimes: Compare “calm” periods versus high-volatility periods. Correlation often strengthens or changes direction during stress.
- Use returns, not prices: Recompute using logarithmic returns to make the comparison consistent.
These checks help you identify which pairs are currently correlated in your chosen definition, while acknowledging that correlation is not permanent.
Relevant limitations and risks
- Correlation is conditional: It describes co-movement in a particular sample, not a guaranteed relationship.